Estimating the Number of Dead Americans by June 2, 2020
March 21, 2020
Approximately 3.5 million Americans will die by June 2, 2020 if the spread of the Novelcoronavirus goes unchecked.

Here’s how I arrived at this number:

  • The doubling time for coronavirus is about 5 days.
  • As of March 19, 2020 there were about 10,000 confirmed cases in the United States.
  • The mortality rate for Covid-19 is likely to be around 1%. If it’s 2%, then the number of Americans who die by June 2, 2020 will double from 3.5 million to 7 million.
  • This also assumes that zero intervention is put into place to stop the spread.

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